Understand a forecast
Interpret a forecast's probability, uncertainty, reasoning and resolution criteria together.
Forecasts and forecast runs
A forecast is what Mantic tracks: one outcome, defined by a title, a deadline and resolution criteria. Each time Mantic updates it, it produces a forecast run with a probability or distribution, reasoning and a completion time. A forecast's runs, oldest to newest, are its forecast history.
| In these docs | In the API | Identified by |
|---|---|---|
| forecast | question resource (GET /questions/{question_id}) | question_id (the id of a question) |
| forecast run | forecast object (latest_forecast, GET /forecasts/{forecast_id}) | forecast_id (the id of a forecast) |
Values and reasoning belong to one run. The title and resolution criteria belong to the forecast and stay the same across its runs.
Probability
A probability is the chance, as of one run, of the outcome the forecast defines. Numerical and date forecasts give a distribution instead; see Read a forecast's latest run.
Uncertainty
There is no confidence field. Uncertainty shows in the spread of a numerical or date distribution, such as the gap between percentiles["25"] and percentiles["75"], and in the reasoning.
Reasoning
The reasoning is the forecaster's write-up that you see on the forecast in the Mantic web app. See Read reasoning and sources.
Resolution
The forecast's clarifications field holds the resolution criteria: what evidence settles the outcome, and how. Read them before you compare a forecast with another source. See the definition fields in Read a forecast's latest run.